State of Excess Inventory 2026
Verified data on the excess-inventory and B2B liquidation market: market size and growth, buyer demand, and the upstream returns wave. Every figure on this page was checked against its primary source on 12 June 2026 — and the widely-quoted numbers that failed verification are listed at the bottom.
Published 2026-05-13 · Last verified 2026-06-12 · Free to cite with a link back to this page · Press: info@forthcast.io
FY2025 GMV at Liquidity Services — the largest public B2B liquidation marketplace — up 15% year over year
Source: SEC 8-K filing, Nov 2025Registered liquidation buyers at Liquidity Services, up 10% year over year — a record 4.1M participated in auctions in FY2025
Source: SEC 8-K filing, Nov 2025US merchandise returns projected for 2025 — 15.8% of total retail sales, and 19.3% of online sales
Source: NRF / Happy Returns, Oct 2025Executive summary
The B2B liquidation market is growing double-digits: the largest public marketplace operator, Liquidity Services, grew GMV 15% to $1.57 billion in fiscal 2025, with registered buyers up 10% to 6.0 million. The upstream supply is enormous and persistent — US consumers return roughly $850–890 billion of merchandise a year (15.8–16.9% of retail sales; 19.3% of online sales), with nearly $170 billion arriving in the post-holiday weeks alone. The market's most-quoted TAM figure ("$100 billion of US excess inventory annually") failed source verification and should not be cited.
Market size & growth — what the SEC filings show
GMV $1.57 billion, up 15% YoY
Liquidity Services (NASDAQ: LQDT), parent of Liquidation.com and the largest public comp for the B2B surplus category, grew gross merchandise volume 15% in fiscal 2025 (ended Sep 30, 2025). Revenue grew 31% to $476.7M; GAAP net income grew 41% to $28.1M.
Source: SEC 8-K, Nov 20 2025~58% of that GMV is government surplus
LQDT's GovDeals segment (government/public-sector surplus) contributed roughly $903.5M of FY2025 GMV — so the commercial retail-surplus slice of the public-comp market is meaningfully smaller than headline GMV suggests. A sizing caveat worth carrying when citing the $1.57B figure.
Source: SEC 8-K, Nov 20 2025$15B+ cumulative completed transactions, 15,000+ sellers
Liquidity Services reports more than $15 billion in completed transactions to more than five million qualified buyers and 15,000 corporate and government sellers worldwide since inception.
Source: SEC 8-K, Nov 20 2025The upstream supply — returns feed the surplus pipeline
$849.9B returned in 2025 (projected) — 15.8% of retail sales
Retailers expect 15.8% of annual sales to be returned in 2025, totaling $849.9 billion. 2024 returns were $890 billion at 16.9% of sales.
Source: NRF / Happy Returns19.3% of online sales returned
The online return rate runs structurally above the all-channel rate (19.3% vs 15.8% in 2025) — e-commerce growth keeps feeding the surplus and returns pipeline that liquidation absorbs.
Source: NRF / Happy Returns~$170B returned in the post-holiday period alone
B-Stock estimates nearly $170 billion of merchandise is returned to retailers in the weeks after the holidays — the seasonal supply wave that feeds the B2B liquidation market each Q1.
Source: B-Stock estimate, via Inc.Numbers we checked and do not recommend citing
These figures circulate widely in liquidation-industry coverage but failed verification against their underlying sources:
“About $100 billion of excess inventory moves through the United States annually”
Failed verification. The figure traces to a single founder interview (Ghost CEO, Fortune, Oct 2024) with no published methodology, and no independent source reproduces it. It is market self-sizing, not measurement.
Original source“US merchandise returns are declining year over year”
Failed verification. The series is volatile, not trending down: 14.5%/$743B (2023) → 16.9%/$890B (2024) → 15.8%/$849.9B projected (2025). NRF itself describes the 2025 rate as “in line with” 2024.
Original sourceMethodology
Each figure on this page was checked against its live primary source (SEC EDGAR filings, NRF press releases, named business-press interviews) on 12 June 2026. Claims that could not be supported by their underlying source — or that no independent source reproduces — are listed above as not recommended for citation rather than silently dropped. This page reports third-party industry data only; as Forthclear marketplace transaction volume scales, anonymised first-party data (sell-through rates, price recovery by category) will be added under the same sourcing standard.
Frequently asked questions
How big is the B2B liquidation market?
The largest public marketplace operator, Liquidity Services, posted $1.57 billion in GMV for fiscal 2025, up 15% year over year — but roughly 58% of that is government surplus (GovDeals). No verified figure exists for the total US commercial excess-inventory market; the widely quoted “$100 billion” number is an unverified founder estimate.
How many liquidation buyers are there?
Liquidity Services alone reports approximately 6.0 million registered buyers (up 10% year over year), with a record 4.1 million auction participants in fiscal 2025. Buy-side demand is growing, not shrinking.
How much merchandise is returned in the US each year?
US returns were $890 billion in 2024 (16.9% of retail sales) and are projected at $849.9 billion for 2025 (15.8%), per NRF and Happy Returns. Online sales return at a higher rate: an estimated 19.3% in 2025.
Is the liquidation market growing?
The verified signals point up: the largest public operator grew GMV 15% and registered buyers 10% in fiscal 2025, while the upstream supply of returned and excess merchandise remains at historic highs (~$850-890B/year returned in the US).
How much of a typical Shopify store's catalog is dead or excess stock?
First-party platform data from Forthcast, our sister demand-forecasting product, shows the problem is concentrated at the catalog level: across 53,061 SKUs tracked on Shopify stores, 71.9% had no active demand and a further 13.1% were overstocked — roughly 85% of catalogued SKUs sitting as dead or excess inventory. That is the upstream supply that feeds excess-inventory and liquidation channels.
Holding excess inventory?
Forthclear connects e-commerce merchants with verified bulk buyers. Free to list — a 5% fee applies only when your lot sells.
List Surplus Free 7 Ways to Sell Excess Inventory Fast